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Is Federer's Fine Serving An Open Omen?

Melbourne, Australia

Federer© Getty ImagesRoger Federer has only been broken twice going into the semi-finals.

Is this a good sign for Roger Federer?

On three of the four previous occasions the Swiss has dropped serve twice or less en route to a Grand Slam semi-final, he has gone on to win the title. His only miss was the 2008 Wimbledon final, when he finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal, the man he faces in tonight's Aussie Open semi-final.

In his first five matches at Melbourne Park this year Federer dropped serve once to Blaz Kavcic in the second round and once to Andy Murray in the quarter-finals (when he served for the match in the third set).

Including his run to the Brisbane final in week one, Federer has not been broken in six of his nine matches this season, holding 116 times in 122 service games. Additionally, Federer is averaging 10.6 aces per match this season, up from last year’s 6.4 average.

Below is a look at Federer's serving prowess.

SERVE IT UP
Through nine matches this year, Federer has only been broken six times in 122 service games (including four breaks vs. Lleyton Hewitt in the Brisbane final):

  Service Holds Break Pts. Saved
Aus. Open (going into SF) 75 of 77 9 of 11
Brisbane (Runner-up) 41 of 45 15 of 19

HOLDING COURT
Federer has been broken twice in 77 games en route to his 11th consecutive semi-final at the AUSTRALIAN OPEN. It’s also the fifth time in his Grand Slam career that he’s only lost serve twice (or less) going into a semi-final, the first time since 2008 Wimbledon. In the previous four Grand Slam tournaments, he went on to capture the title three times. Here is a look at his serving success:

  Broken Before SF Tournament Result
2014 AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2 in Semi-final (vs. Nadal);
2008 Wimbledon 2 Runner-up (l. to Nadal)
2007 US Open 2 Champion (d. Djokovic)
2006 Wimbledon 2 Champion (d. Nadal)
2004 Wimbledon 1 Champion (d. Roddick)

FEDERER @ AUSTRALIAN OPEN
This is the first time in 11 trips to the semi-finals at the AUSTRALIAN OPEN that Federer has only been broken twice. Here is a year-by-year look at how many times Federer was broken going into the semi-finals and his success rate:

  Broken Before SF Tournament Result
2014 2 in SF
2013 5 SF
2012 3 SF
2011 9 SF
2010 11 Champion
2009 6 Runner-up
2008 7 SF
2007 12 Champion
2006 8 Champion
2005 4 SF
2004 5 Champion

- With statistical help from Joanna Mather

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