Will Sinner pass Djokovic for World No. 1 on clay?

Jannik Sinner’s surge has been the biggest story of the 2024 season. As the clay-court season begins, the Italian has an opportunity to make even more history by making a push to pass Novak Djokovic and become the No. 1 player in the PIF ATP Rankings.

After winning the Miami Open presented by Itau, the 22-year-old on Monday climbed to a career-high World No. 2, 1,015 points behind World No. 1 Djokovic. If Sinner maintains his current form, he will have an opportunity to make his move later in the clay season, setting the stage for a tantalising battle for top spot with Djokovic and former World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz looming.

“For sure it means a lot to me, but more importantly, it was a great performance for me, especially in that semi-final and final, which for me it's more important,” Sinner said after defeating Grigor Dimitrov in the Miami final. “Being No. 2, it's an amazing feeling. I never thought to come to this point. I come from a very normal family. My dad is still working, as my mom, too. For me, sport is one thing, and life is different. I'm very happy to be in this position.”

World No. 1 Battle

If you remove all points Djokovic (2,315) and Sinner (585) are defending during the clay season, Sinner has 715 more points (8,125 to 7,410). The critical moment in the battle will likely come at Roland Garros, where defending champion Djokovic will have 2,000 points coming off and Sinner will only drop 45 points following a second-round loss in 2023.

That does not mean that Djokovic can rest easy at No. 1 in the coming weeks. Among the upcoming tournaments are three clay-court ATP Masters 1000 events, with plenty of points up for grabs.

Sinner will be confident heading into the clay season after his 22-1 start to the year. The 22-year-old’s only loss came in the Indian Wells semi-finals against Carlos Alcaraz. He has won titles at the Australian Open, Rotterdam and Miami.

With that start, the Italian has already become the highest-ranked player from his country in PIF ATP Rankings history (since 1973). Now he will set his sights set on becoming the 29th player to reach World No. 1.

Djokovic will not relinquish his position without a fight, though. The 36-year-old just began his record 419th week at the top of men’s tennis and on Sunday will break Roger Federer’s mark as the oldest World No. 1 in history.

The Serbian owns an 8-3 record in 2024, including his run to the Australian Open semi-finals, where he lost to Sinner in four sets. Despite a third-round loss at Indian Wells, Djokovic will be confident heading into Monte-Carlo, where he is a two-time champion and will try to claim his record-extending 41st Masters 1000 trophy. He has won more than 80 per cent of his tour-level matches on clay according to Infosys ATP Stats.

Alcaraz is still in the battle, too. The World No. 3, currently 65 points behind Sinner, is defending 2,265 points on clay. That puts the Spaniard on the back foot, but last year’s Madrid and Barcelona champion has proven his prowess on clay and showed his return to form at Indian Wells, where he successfully defended his trophy.

Alcaraz first reached World No. 1 after the 2022 US Open and will be keen to add to the 36 weeks he has spent in the position.