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Andy Murray breaks and holds more often from deuce than 30/30.

For Some Players, There Is A Difference Between 30-all & Deuce

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows the subtle differences between 30/30 and deuce

Is there any real difference between 30/30 and deuce?

On the surface, both scorelines clearly show competitors are even in the point score, and both scorelines sit just two points away from a player clinching the game. But once you dig a little deeper, subtle differences do emerge, with 30/30 occurring more frequently, while deuce adds two extra points of strategy and countermoves to the equation.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings uncovers varying degrees of performance when the players are serving and receiving at 30/30 and deuce.

2017 Top 10 Average Holding Serve

Overall, the Top 10 players average holding serve from both scorelines at almost identical percentages.

  • 30/30 = 77.6%

  • Deuce = 77.4%

  • Total 30/30 points = 58% (787)

  • Total Deuce points = 42% (562)

Some players, such as World No. 1 Andy Murray, bucked the trend by being more efficient holding at deuce than at 30/30. Murray is holding serve a substantial 8.1 percentage points (80 per cent to 71.9 per cent) higher from deuce than he is at 30/30.

Milos Raonic also has performed better at deuce, holding serve 92.9 per cent of the time, a 4.5 per cent improvement over the 88.4 per cent he holds from 30/30.

2017 Top 10 Percentages of Holding Serve From 30/30 and Deuce

Ranking

Player

Serving 30/30

Serving Deuce

+/-

1

Andy Murray

71.9%

80.0%

8.1%

2

Novak Djokovic

75.8%

76.5%

0.7%

3

Stan Wawrinka

77.1%

75.4%

-1.7%

4

Roger Federer

87.2%

86.0%

-1.2%

5

Rafael Nadal

80.4%

81.3%

0.9%

6

Milos Raonic

88.4%

92.9%

4.5%

7

Kei Nishikori

73.6%

73.3%

-0.3%

8

Marin Cilic

72.0%

64.7%

-7.3%

9

Dominic Thiem

78.8%

76.7%

-2.1%

10

David Goffin

73.7%

73.9%

0.2%

AVERAGE

-

77.6%

77.4%

-0.2%

2017 Top 10 Average Breaking Serve

Once again, the slight edge goes to superior analytics from 30/30. The Top 10 broke serve 32.7 per cent of the time from 30/30, and 31.4 per cent of the time from deuce – a difference of 1.3 percentage points.

  • 30/30 = 32.7%

  • Deuce = 31.4%

  • Total 30/30 points = 57% (906)

  • Total Deuce points = 43% (684)

Rafael Nadal, who won his 10th Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Sunday, moved up two spots in the Emirates ATP Rankings this week to No. 5. Nadal boasts the biggest difference (5.9 percentage points) in 2017 in breaking from deuce than at 30/30. He breaks at deuce 39.8 per cent of the time, compared to 33.9 per cent of the time at 30/30.

Other players, such as Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic, actually break more from 30/30, with Djokovic being 7.2 percentage points better and Cilic 8 percentage points better.

2017 Top 10 Percentages of Breaking Serve From 30/30 and Deuce

Ranking

Player

Return 30/30

Returning Deuce

+/-

1

Andy Murray

38.6%

40.3%

1.7%

2

Novak Djokovic

27.6%

20.4%

-7.2%

3

Stan Wawrinka

32.2%

27.1%

-5.1%

4

Roger Federer

34.5%

30.0%

-4.5%

5

Rafael Nadal

33.9%

39.8%

5.9%

6

Milos Raonic

31.9%

25.8%

-6.1%

7

Kei Nishikori

32.0%

37.5%

5.5%

8

Marin Cilic

28.6%

20.6%

-8.0%

9

Dominic Thiem

36.0%

31.3%

-4.7%

10

David Goffin

30.1%

31.5%

1.4%

AVERAGE

-

32.7%

31.4%

-1.3%

The chances of a player holding and breaking serve from these two specific scorelines in a game are very similar on average but can also move up and down considerably with each player. Tracking performance in these key areas throws new light on the inner workings of our sport.

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