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Novak Djokovic leads the Top 25 players in the ATP Rankings in rate of games won from 40/0 on return.

The Best Players At Unlocking 40/0 Return Games

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses which top players are the best at recovering from 40/0 on return

You are serving at 40/0 to a Top 25-ranked player.

On the one hand, you have built a formidable lead in your service game. On the other hand, you have one of the best players in the world still alive in the game trying to break your serve.

Should you still be worried about getting broken? Not so much.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 25 in the ATP Rankings from the beginning of the 2015 season identifies that they only come back to break serve on average less than two times (1.7%) out of every 100 from this specific point score.

It seems the 40/0 hole when returning is a lot deeper and darker than we realised. The data set includes 14,658 service games since the start of the 2015 season, with the Top 25 only coming back to break a combined 242 times.

Novak Djokovic leads the Top 25 in climbing out of a 40/0 hole to break serve since the start of the 2015 season, achieving it 19 times out of 510 return games for a 3.7 per cent average. The Top five during this period are:

1. Novak Djokovic = 3.7%

2. Damir Dzumhur = 3.1%

3. Rafael Nadal = 2.9%

4. Roberto Bautista Agut = 2.8%

5. David Goffin 2.6%

Juan Martin Del Potro found it the toughest to come back and break when returning against a 40/0 advantage, only doing it twice out of 420 attempts.

As Djokovic wins return points from his 40/0 hole, it’s only after he has won three consecutive points and evened the score back to Deuce that he climbs above a one in three chance of breaking serve.

Djokovic: Percentage Chance of Breaking Serve When Opponent Serving At:

• 40/0 = 3.7% (19/510)

• 40/15 = 9.3% (83/890)

• 40/30 = 17.5% (158/904)

• Deuce = 36.5% (295/809)

Djokovic’s upcoming hard-court campaign includes ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Canada and Cincinnati, followed by the US Open. In the three years between 2015-2017, he has only won a return game from 40/0 two times out of 76 attempts.

2015-2017 Tournaments

• Canada = 0/24

• Cincinnati = 0/15

• US Open = 2/37

The 40/0 point score is almost a lock, but returners still need to look for opportunity to break as the mental and emotional scars that can be inflicted from climbing out this deep hole can go a long way to paving the road to victory.

 ATP Ranking  Player

 Games Won Returning

 At 40/0

 Games Played Returning

 At 40/0

 Break

Percentage

 10  Novak Djokovic  19  510  3.73%
 24  Damir Dzumhur  13  426  3.05%
 1  Rafael Nadal  17  584  2.91%
 17  Roberto Bautista Agut  18  638  2.82%
 11  David Goffin  17  647  2.63%
 2  Roger Federer  14  565  2.48%
 23   Hyeon Chung  7  298  2.35%
 16   Kyle Edmund  9  468  1.92%
 8  Dominic Thiem  15  803  1.87%
 22  Marco Cecchinato  3  190  1.58%
 3  Alexander Zverev  11  719  1.53%
 20  Kei Nishikori  9  615  1.46%
 15  Jack Sock  9  642  1.40%
 13  Pablo Carreno Busta  8  587  1.36%
 19  Lucas Pouille  8  601  1.33%
 18  Nick Kyrgios  8  622  1.29%
 5  Kevin Anderson  10  808  1.24%
 14  Fabio Fognini  7  569  1.23%
 6  Grigor Dimitrov  8  692  1.16%
 25  Philipp Kohlschreiber  6  559  1.07%
 21  BornaCoric  6  584  1.03%
 9  John Isner  10  1,014  0.99%
 7  Marin Cilic  5  662  0.76%
 12  Diego Schwartzman  3  435  0.69%
 4  Juan Martin Del Potro  2  420  0.48%
   Average  10  586  1.69%
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