© Peter Staples/ATP World Tour

Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the Next Gen ATP Finals field with a 51.03 per cent success rate in tour-level points this season.

Tsitsipas Leader Of The Next Gen Pack – By One Point

Analysis proves you don’t have to win all the points, just the ones that count the most

Big distances. Small margins.

The Next Gen ATP Finals field of eight players has competed in 278 matches this season all over the globe, winning an impressive 53 per cent of them. It’s the best young talent our sport has to offer, and now they get a chance to go head-to-head this week in Milan, Italy.

What’s going to matter most in deciding the eventual champion? A point here and a point there - just like always.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of more than 44,000 points played this season by the #NextGenATP field of eight players identifies that they have lost 22 more points than they have won. Four of the eight have won slightly more points than they have won in 2018, while the other four have won slightly less. The eight players have averaged winning 49.49 per cent (22,110/44,242) of points this season.

You don’t need to win all the points. Just the right ones.

The yardstick to measure by in 2018 is World No. 1, Novak Djokovic, who has won 54.44 per cent (5488/10086) of points played with a 49-11 record.

The highest win percentage of points won from the #NextGenATP field is Stefanos Tsitsipas at 51.03 per cent (5488/10754). Tsitsipas also has a win over Djokovic this season, defeating the Serb 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3 in the round of 16 at the Rogers Cup in August.

Tsitsipas won his opening round match at the Next Gen ATP Finals over Jaume Munar 4-3(5), 4-3(3), 3-4(4), 4-2.

NextGen Field - 2018 Points Won/Lost & Win Percentage

Player Points Won Total Points Win %
Stefanos Tsitsipas 5488 10754 51.03%
Alex de Minaur 3629 7168 50.63%
Andrey Rublev 2984 5950 50.15%
Frances Tiafoe 3983 7955 50.07%
Taylor Fritz 3399 6817 49.86%
Jaume Munar 1664 3399 48.96%
Hubert Hurkacz 990 2043 48.46%
Liam Caruana 73 156 46.79%
Total/Average 22210 44242 49.49%

The other three players who have won more points in 2018 than they have lost are Alex de Minaur (50.63%), Andrey Rublev (50.15%) and Frances Tiafoe (50.07%).

An interesting way for players to understand how close they actually are from the top of the tree in our sport is to directly compare themselves to the World No. 1. For example, Tiafoe is ranked No. 40, and has averaged winning 50 points out of every hundred in 2018, while Djokovic has climbed back to No. 1 by averaging winning 54 points out of every hundred. So in a very real way, Tiafoe has got to find just four more points out every hundred he plays to become the top ranked player.

Tsitsipas is the only #NextGenATP player ranked in the Top 20, while all of them are ranked in the Top 100 except for Italian qualifying tournament winner, Liam Caruana, who is ranked No. 622.

NextGen Field - 2018 Matches Won / Lost

Player Matches Won Matches Lost Match Win %
Stefanos Tsitsipas 41 27 60.29%
Frances Tiafoe 27 24 52.94%
Alex de Minaur 24 22 52.17%
Taylor Fritz 22 18 55.00%
Andrey Rublev 17 21 44.74%
Jaume Munar 9 10 47.37%
Hubert Hurkacz 6 9 40.00%
Liam Caruana 0 1 0.00%
Total/Average 146 132 52.52%

The age-old tennis cliche of focusing on just one point at a time certainly hits home when you view the sport in this manner.

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